Since 1972, Clay County has drifted back and forth between Democratic and Republican candidates for governor, voting for Walker in 1972, Democratic nominee Neil Hartigan in 1990 and Poshard in 1998. Meanwhile, California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, and New Jersey rounded out the bottom of the list. Only about a fifth searched for a new job; further, not very many at all learned about new schools. Reason to act now, else risklosing generations of progress made in enfranchising Black and brown communities. Many have worried that these refugees may be foolish enough to bring blue-state . An emergency declaration is a powerful tool we need to help homeless Oregonians. Like other analysts who study democracy, he views the Trump faction that now dominates the Republican Partywhat he terms the MAGA movementas the U.S. equivalent to the authoritarian parties in places such as Hungary and Venezuela. Texas40 electoral votes are on the table. Lower taxes, Republican legislatures, and stronger pandemic economies people flocked to red states and abandoned blue ones in 2022. The trend of population shifts from Democratically dominated blue states to Republican-controlled red states only accelerated in the COVID-era of the past 2 years, according to census data and other information from companies like U-Haul. They just didnt vote, period.. Well, I found out this morning, shes on a ventilator., When asked if he knows anyone who has succumbed to the illness, Spencer said, Oh yeah, I know a lot of people thats died from COVID.. My dad would often come home from work shortly before my mom headed out for her late-night shift as a nurse. A recent poll from Emerson College shows that a typically deep blue state may be on the verge of turning red after November. I just try not to say too much to anybody anymore. Biden's victory, and the matter in which he won, left many political pundits. (April 26), Get a digest of our takes on current events every day, Democrats still face daunting historical odds, voted Democratic only once in a presidential election since 1948, not occupied both U.S. Senate seats since 1952, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Florida isn't bright red but a long-standing swing state. For example, if a state has a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+5, that means it is 5 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole. Moreover, the elections may give momentum to at least two of these governorsNewsom and DeSantisto sell their states competing visions to the nation by running for president in 2024. The states shifting demographics had given Democrats hope, as margins at the top of the ticket have shrunk in recent years. Republicans are on a long winning streak in Florida, even if their victories have been by small . When someone moves to a new home in another state, they have to submit a change-of-address request, so the data are a reliable proxy for migration statistics, according to the NAR. The hardening difference between red and blue, Podhorzer maintains, empowers the 10 purple states (if you include Arizona and Georgia) to decide which of the two superpower nations values, Blue or Red, will prevail in presidential and congressional elections. And Donald Trump won the state by less than 6 percentage points in 2020. Assisted by student research assistants at the Rose Institute of State and Local Government, we divided responses into three categories: economic reasons, political and policy reasons, and personal reasons. If we have people who are in the cities and suburbs never interacting with people with a different demographic profile, and vice versa, you have people in red areas never seeing blue voters, it just further pushes the two sides away from each other, he said, and gives them less and less common ground.. "The migrants are being used as pawns in a politically charged election, intentionally sowing chaos so the governors can say, 'You're getting a taste of your own medicine.'. Democrats went from winning 43 counties in the 1998 governors race down to a dismal one county in the 2014 race, in which Democratic incumbent Gov. On its own, the blue nation would be the worlds second-largest economy, trailing only China. Blue State May Finally Turn Red, Polling Shows (ConservativeJournal.org) - The midterms are just around the corner. These results are part of a larger survey project conducted by the CMC-Rose Institute Poll during the 2022 election cycle. We should've done this a long time ago, but my Democrat opponents have failed to come through for Oregon families. Director of Polling, Rose Institute of State and Local Government By Nicole Narea @nicolenarea Nov 11, 2022, 10:04am EST The conflict between the blue and red states and their representatives has been building for some time, and may reach a climax in our not-too-distant political future. The state with the most outbound migration by population was California, with more than 343,000 people leaving the state. Life expectancy is nearly three years greater in the blue (80.1 years) than the red (77.4) states. More than half of Republicans (58%) and Democrats (55%) said they thought about moving to a state where the government better reflects their political and policy values, while 69% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans considered moving . Measured that way, the red nation houses slightly more of the countrys eligible voting population (45 percent versus 39 percent), but the blue nation contributes more of the total U.S. gross national product: 46 percent versus 40 percent. Before Democratic Gov. Its discouraging, and it causes the party apparatus and structure to just fall apart.. To respond to a column, submit a comment to letters@usatoday.com. Currently, it looks to be a race between the governor from Chicago and one of possibly four or more GOP contenders, three of whom hail from deep-red downstate. Independents are closely divided between the two. At this early stage, all such choices are speculative. These changes were catalyzed by a diversifying electorate similar to Texas and aggressive investment in organizing to reach young voters and voters of color. In California, many respondents from across the political spectrum described concerns about the cost of living and other aspects of the economy. Podhorzer defines modern red and blue America as the states in which each party has usually held unified control of the governorship and state legislature in recent years. Through gerrymandering, theyreducedthe number of majority-Black and Latino congressional districts andsplit upAsian communities significantly diluting political power for the Texans of color who have driven population growth. This divergence itself creates enormous strain on the countrys cohesion, but more and more even that looks like only a way station. This virus has impacted all Americans." MORE: Trump's rebuke of CDC . The one South Texas congressional seat Republicans did claim, with the victory of Monica De La Cruz, was in a district drawn in 2021 to help a Republican win. Importantly, the majority of Texans oppose recent conservative priorities. Among Republicans, former President Trump is the most popular, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis clearly the leading alternative. The new data for 2022 follows a similar path as 2020 and 2021s migration patterns. AT&T DirecTV Censorship of Newsmax Continues, See More Here, Report: Texas, Arizona, Florida Posted Biggest Population Gains in 2021, Red States Grow as Blue States Shrink: Census, Air Force Fires Nuclear Base Leaders After Failed Inspection, Consumer Product Safety Commission Wants Information on Gas Stove Hazards. Mostly, it comes down to cities. No presidential candidate has won it by more than five percentage points this century. Wednesday, 27 July 2022 11:39 AM EDT. Spencer, who has been involved in Democratic politics since the early 1990s, said his party affiliation has not been a helpful calling card for him in his community. Yet, some respondents may be taking more concrete steps toward actually leaving. Of the four governors discussed in this report, DeSantis and Newsom are best positioned to run, although Newsom has disavowed any plans to do so. The country is bifurcating, Bolling says in the film. If you put together the city and the suburbs, thats a winning combination for any candidate. Undergirding that advantage, he argues, are laws that make registering or voting in many of the red states more difficult, and severe gerrymanders that have allowed Republicans to virtually lock in indefinite control of many state legislatures. It's official: Florida is a red state The former swing state is now a lost cause for Democrats. That's devastating for blue states, and could soon tip the balance of power in Congress in 2022. Record-breaking midterm turnout in 2018 was largely due to ORourkes run for Senate and anti-Trump mobilization among Democrats, and the turnout brought them closer to victory than in previous cycles. kmiller@cmc.edu, Kravis Center, Fourth Floor Is Drazan right for the job and will voters show up to support her in November? It doesnt matter if Im in the inner city of Chicago. One element of that convergence came through what legal scholars call the rights revolution. That was the succession of actions from Congress and the Supreme Court, mostly beginning in the 1960s, that strengthened the floor of nationwide rights and reduced the ability of states to curtail those rights. Mostly, Republicans do well in rural areas, Democrats do well in the cities, and the suburbs are mixed but are more Republican. The States Of the Blue Wall. STATE OF THE ECONOMYTAKING HITS AND RUNNING UP DEFICITS. Abbott did a really good job of tying ORourke with Biden and the border crisis and them being on the same page, and voters bought it.. AEI, a center-right think tank, said that empirical evidence suggests that domestic migration patterns in the US do reflect Americans and firms voting/moving with their feet from Democratic-controlled, high-tax, business-unfriendly, fiscally unhealthy, economically stagnant states with relatively high electricity and housing costs to Republican-controlled, lower-tax, more business-friendly, fiscally healthy and economically vibrant states with lower electricity and housing costs.. Those states are: California Conencticut Delaware Hawaii Illinois Maryland Massachusetts Minnesota New Jersey New Mexico New York Oregon Rhode Island Vermont Washington. Voters returned GOP incumbents to their jobs at the top of the ticket and handed the states dominant party its 14th consecutive sweep of statewide offices. In California, a remarkable 70% of Republicans said they are interested in leaving the state, compared to 27% of Democrats. Increasingly, Americans are also choosing to move to places that align with their political views. Emersons poll places Drazan in a slim two-point lead. Voters in Oregon are beginning to favor Christine Drazan, a former Representative in the states House and the current Republican gubernatorial candidate. In California, 86% of the Republicans interested in exiting want to move to Texas or Florida. Of note, the top 10 states with the greatest number of new residents are ones that typically lean right (although Arizona and North Carolina both have Democratic governors). Her Democratic opponent and former Speaker of the House, Tina Kotek, is no longer in the lead. A 13-year-old girl named Meilin turns into a giant red panda whenever she gets too excited. Approximately 36% of respondents supported the Republican, while just 34% threw their hat behind Kotek instead. To put the states seismic political weight into perspective, based on thecurrent electoral map, Democrats could loseArizona,Florida,Michigan,Ohio,Pennsylvaniaand Wisconsin and still take the White House if they won Texas. It turns out Cuomo is counting on a Democratic controlled Congress to repeal the provision in President Trump's 2017 tax overhaul which capped the federal tax deduction for state and local taxes . The MAGA movement is not stopping at the borders of the states it already controls, Podhorzer writes. PublishedJanuary 10, 2022 at 5:35 AM CST, St. Louis Public Radio | The country's blue state exodus is shaking up demographics in red states that are serving as landing spots. I definitely feel for the people in the red areas of Illinois because you know if the Chicago area has enough people to determine the course of the state, [red areas] are basically never going to win, Jacobson said. 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