It's time to retire outdated stereotypes about the Russian military: As the possibility of an escalated Russian war in Ukraine looms larger and larger, a noted strategist and historian took to social media to argue Moscow's forces could be handily repelled by little hit-and-run warfare by Ukrainian civilians-at-arms. Send me updates about Slate special offers. Rather, we need to move past stereotypes even those with some historical basis that mischaracterize what Russia's military can and can't do today. Absolutely hilarious to watch. The Russian advance is ponderous, retired Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, a former NATO supreme allied commander for Europe, said at a virtual Atlantic Conference event on the crisis last Friday. Most of Russias initial attacks in Ukraine were relatively small, involving at most two or three battalions. A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. In short, 2023 is a pivotal year in the war, and it is extremely important that Russia does not [35]Footage taken by a Ukrainian soldier in Chasiv Yar shows heavy incoming fire directed at the settlement, suggesting that Russian forces are continuing to strike areas along the T0504 Kostiantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway. In addition, the Russian senior officers have proved so far to be risk-averse, the officials said. [22]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign [25]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [26]https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgroun [27]https://t.me/btr80/5171;https://twitter.com/auditor_ya/status/16305795; https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1630263342756515840, [28]https://t.me/boris_rozhin/79250;https://t.me/sashakots/38680, [29]https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630616430210170880?s=20;ht https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8071;https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8069. In this operation, the Russian military never achieved the necessary momentum. Sean McFate, welcome. That Russia has so quickly abandoned surgical strikes, instead killing civilians trying to flee, could damage Mr. Putins chances of winning a long-term war in Ukraine. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update. Ukrainian soldiers have killed more than 3,000 Russian troops, according to conservative estimates by American officials. Thomas Bullock, an open source analyst from Janes, the defense intelligence firm, said Russian forces have made tactical errors that the Ukrainians have been able to capitalize on. We called Sean McFate to try to understand what this might mean. [9]Putin has frequently invoked mentions of domestic security, law enforcement, and counterterrorism efforts when speaking about the war in Ukraine in order to portray the war as a threat to Russian internal security and to bring the war closer to his domestic constituency as ISW has previously reported. [50], Russian forces continued routine fire west of Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts. In the years immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian military [33]A Russian milblogger remarked that Russian troops are attacking towards Bohdanivka in order to threaten the Khromove-Bakhmut route. Why have the Russians performed so poorly in the early days of the war? An examination of the current state of the Russian ground forces supports such an analysis. Image: AP. https://t.me/RVvoenkor/39332;https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/16306 https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0QKZqHXVCM4m https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3344;https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2691 https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32292266.html;https://www.themoscowtimesdot. Most Russian capabilities have been sitting on the sidelines, said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense research institute, in an email. Significant activity in Belarus(ISW assesses that a Russian or Belarusian attack into northern Ukraine in early 2023 is extraordinarily unlikely and has thus restructured this section of the update. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia's weapons need to be modernized. According to U.S. officials, the Russian military has committed 80 percent of its active-duty army, airborne, and marine units and their equipment to Ukraine, and it has already withdrawn additional equipment from long-term storage. Vladimir Putin dismissed the weapon as old and said Russias missile systems would be able to shoot it down. : r/CredibleDefense 9 yr. ago Posted by bleepblopbloopy Russias Overestimated Military Might. Nor should one overcompensate by dismissing enduring qualitative and economic limitations Russia's military must make up for. Despite those losses, Russia is continuing its push, and with that still trying to move its armor forward, directly into Ukrainian landmines. The vehicle was initially introduced by Soviet armed forces in 1954. By Dr Igor Sutyagin. Right now, Ukrainian forces at Vuhledar are outnumbered when it comes to armor the first Leopard tanks donated by Poland arrived in Ukraine on Friday but the last two weeks have shown its mines are enough to hold back Russian tanks, at least for now. Furthermore, declines in the ruble-to-dollar exchange rates don't as directly affect the price of military hardware Russia buys from Russian firms, ie. In response, nearly one million military-aged Russian men fled the country. The Ukrainians have obliterated several old tanks armed with abundant anti-tank-guided missiles. It's not that there is never continuity or that all problems get corrected, but militaries really do change for better and worse in response to historical experience and shifting material circumstances. Some 154 helicopters, 19 aircraft, and 17 MLRSs have also reportedly been lost. None of this should be overstated. Are they third-country nationals? Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. No tolerance of casualties.". Russia has closed down the airspace over the Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to reports. Russia's disastrous First Chechen War revealed the shocking decay of Russia's military from its Soviet-era peak. Thanks for signing up! The invocation of Chechnya and Finland is peculiar as while both conflicts with Russia suggest certain operational and tactical lessons, neither ended victoriously for Russia's opponents. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. Switchblade 300 Used to Target Russian Positions: There is an old idiom that you dont bring a knife to a gunfight meaning you should never enter a confrontation or ISW has not observed indicators that Russian forces are preparing to resume prolonged offensive activity in Zaporizhia Oblast or any offensive activity in Kherson Oblast. MCFATE: Basically, it's anything that doesn't look like World War II is sort of, like, what that means, or sneaky warfare. He holds a master's degree from Georgetown University and served with the Peace Corps in China. MARTIN: So one reason I think that Russian tactics stand out is that, in recent years, we have really associated the Russians with so-called hybrid war - right? Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images After four days of fighting, the [46], Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to engage in reconnaissance activity and skirmishes in the Dnipro River delta. Anyone can read what you share. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are engaged in fierce fighting near Novoselivske (14km northwest of Svatove). Exact losses are unconfirmed; Ukraines military claims that in mid-February Russia lost 36 tanks. [31]Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the situation in Bakhmut is becoming increasingly complicated, and Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky remarked that Wagner is increasingly committing its most prepared assault units to offensives in the area. Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Luhansk Oblast (, Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and made tactical gains within Bakhmut on February 28. [36], Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on February 28. And so, as the Russian invaders met resistance, they didnt quite know what to do. In 2018, about 400 Wagner Group mercenaries went up against some of our best troops - Delta Force, Green Berets, Marines - in eastern Syria. This is possible due to the new capabilities of surveillance drones and electronic warfare units to ferret out enemy positions without having to push as many human scouts into harm's way. https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1630478324215455745;https://t.me https://t.me/grey_zone/17471;https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528; https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/19653;https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/4666 https://t.me/astrapress/21972;https://t.me/sotaproject/54572, https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/481;https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/480. Moscows forces are likely to step up the kind of broader attacks that have led to rising numbers of civilian deaths. They have been updated through the decades. [17]The Kremlin and Lukashenko are likely seizing on Chinas release of a 12-point peace plan to reintroduce an existing Russian information operation that the Kremlin used in December 2022. Russia opened its invasion with a page from the superpower playbook as written by the United States and its allies in the 1991 Gulf War. The Russian army has always been bad at setting up and sustaining supply lines. MARTIN: Who are these people? President Vladimir Putin could still reduce cities in Ukraine to rubble, officials say. It's certainly true that the US's financial means allow it to deploy global power projection capabilities including nuclear-powered supercarriers and hundreds of stealth combat aircraft that far exceed anything Russia's military can do. Is there any - just what's your take on that? [48], Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian force concentrations and logistics in southern Ukraine. [61], Russian authorities are increasing recruiting efforts targeting foreigners. Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. Last modified on Mon 27 Feb 2023 15.47 EST. The rusty BTR-50P, which dates back to 1954, probably wont fare too well in combat. Stay up to date with what you want to know. Copyright 2022 NPR. In politics and in warfare, the small elite on top doesnt want subordinates to get too creativeif they did, they might take over. [16]Lukashenko also blamed the West and the US for coercing Ukrainian officials into rejecting negotiations with Russia. Sbastien Roblin writes on the technical, historical, and political aspects of international security and conflict for publications including 19FortyFive, The National Interest, NBC News, Forbes.com and War is Boring. I saw many opponents who are not that out dated want to arm wrestling with the Russian military, and end up being feed calendar It has never been d [36], Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts. Kherson Oblast occupation administration head Vladimir Saldo called on teachers from Russia to teach in Kherson Oblast, specifically Russian history, and stated that his administration intends to shape the educational curriculum with lessons on patriotism and military affairs under the guidance of the Russian Military Historical Society. Stay up to date with what you want to know. Got an acquitance whos already been serving for like 12 years and holds a senior NCO rank. This is reflected in the Ground Force's preferred ad-hoc fighting formation, the Battalion Tactical Group, which combines infantry and tank companies with an unusually large quantity of artillery. Its troops could plunder the places they conquer for fuel, food, and other supplies. It's true a significant chunk of Russia's army is made up of conscripts who are paid a pittance (2,000 rubles, ie. The photograph is said to have been taken in late 2022. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. That's clear. But nearly two weeks into President Vladimir V. Putins invasion of Ukraine Europes largest land war since 1945 the image of a Russian military as one that other countries should fear, let alone emulate, has been shattered. [56]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NL2GH6ye8Z9QKkzyTCr [57]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [58]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [59]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [60]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [61]https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7267;https://t.me/Lunay14/3910, [63]https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528. If it's not going to be the United Nations, which has - many think has been AWOL for the last 30 years, then who is - you know, who's going to be enforcing that? A Saint Petersburg local news source reported that a graduate student faces criminal charges for breaking a window at the Vyborg Raion, Saint Petersburg military registration and enlistment office, and painting anti-war slogans in the office on February 26. Videos taken by Ukrainian fighters and shared online have shown Russian tanks attempting to cross fields and roads, only to crash to a halt as a mine blows up beneath them. as well as other partner offers and accept our. In the 21st century, Moscow must make do with a smaller, more professional military, and one that's better at keeping highly trained personnel alive. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are defending in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts but are trying to create conditions that will allow Russian forces to conduct offensives in some unspecified areas of this part of the front. In total, russia has only 6 A-50Us and 3 [64]https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1630478324215455745;https://t.me [65]https://t.me/grey_zone/17471;https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528; [66]https://www.fontanka dot ru/2023/02/27/72090578/; https://t.me/astrapress/21942. You can follow his articles on Twitter. As a result, two Il-76 transport planes, each carrying 100 airborne troops, were shot down. It hasn't - the horror hasn't started yet. But European countries say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past. [67]https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/19653;https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/4666 [68]https://meduzadot io/feature/2023/02/27/shkolnitsa-iz-tulskoy-oblasti-narisovala-antivoennyy-risunok-teper-otets-kotoryy-vospityvaet-ee-odin-figurant-ugolovnogo-dela-o-diskreditatsii-armii, [69]https://t.me/astrapress/21972;https://t.me/sotaproject/54572, [70]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [71]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [73]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [74]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/rosiya-nasylno-vyvezla-z-ukrayiny-ponad-16-tysyach-ditej-ofis-genprokurora/, [75]https://www.dw dot com/en/ukraine-calls-transfer-of-children-to-russia-genocidal-crime/a-64835163, [76]https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/481;https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/480, [77]https://sprotyv.moddot gov.ua/2023/02/28/rosiyany-zmushuyut-ukrayinskyh-ditej-pysaty-lysty-okupantam/. as well as other partner offers and accept our. [20]https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [21]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates-2022. [34]Geolocated footage posted on February 27 shows Ukrainian troops striking Wagner positions near Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops continue assaults towards Ivanviske itself. Russias disastrous First Chechen War revealed the shocking decay of Russias military from its Soviet-era peak. A destroyed Russian tank is seen outside of Izyum district of Kharkiv Oblast, They don't address non-state actors. [2]The apparent uptick in fallacious biochemical and nuclear false flag warnings accompanies a concerted Russian false flag information operation accusing Ukraine of preparing for an invasion of Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova. WebRussian tanks have been outrunning the infantry who can protect them. https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630616430210170880?s=20;ht https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8071;https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8069. [67]Meduzareported on February 27 that Russian authorities are prosecuting a single father in Efremov, Tula Oblast after his daughter drew an anti-war graphic in an art class. [47]https://t.me/RVvoenkor/39332;https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/16306 [48]https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0QKZqHXVCM4m [49]https://suspilnedot media/399572-zsu-vlucili-po-rosianah-u-timcasovo-okupovanomu-misti-pologi-na-zaporizzi/, [50]https://suspilnedot media/399500-rosijski-okupanti-ogolosuut-evakuaciu-koli-zbirautsa-tikati-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-livoberezzi-hersonsini/. [39], Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on February 28. His careful response, before reporters in Estonia: Weve seen a large, combined-arms, multi-axis invasion of the second-largest country in Europe, Ukraine, by Russian air, ground, special forces, intelligence forces, he said, before describing some of the bombardment brought by Russia and his concern over its indiscriminate firing on civilians. It's a rare acknowledgment of the flaws in the Russian military's capabilities revealed by the war. [51]Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Kherson City, Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, and Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace claimed, citing reports, that a Russian brigade was effectively annihilated and 1,000 fighters killed between Feb. 14-15. And that is what Russia did in 2014 to sort of take Crimea. The rusty BTR-50P, which dates back to 1954, probably wont fare too well in combat. Do the sources know the information? ISW has previously reported on the correlation between Russian information operations and battlefield realities, particularly when Russian forces are failing to take significant ground in offensive operations in Ukraine. [43]Russian forces have conducted infrequent localized attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast in recent months but have not conducted any meaningful offensive activity in Kherson Oblast since withdrawing from the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River in November 2022. By clicking Sign up, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider This weakness might not matter so much if an army makes rapid progress at the start of its offensive. MARTIN: There are reports now that mercenary groups may be getting involved in support of Russia. [31]Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the situation in Bakhmut is becoming increasingly complicated, and Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky remarked that Wagner is increasingly committing its most prepared assault units to offensives in the area. Russia will commit hara-kiri if it sends its tanks fitted with 1PN96MT-02 optical sights in the Ukraine War. The T-62 is a vintage tank fielded by the Russian Army since the initial months of the ongoing conflict. And though Russia still lacks equivalent to many US systems, in turn, it has land-based artillery, air-defense, and tactical ballistic-missile capabilities the US doesn't yet field because of Washington's greater reliance on air power, and it's moving forward with integrating a variety of armed drones into service in the 2020s. Some troops have crossed the border with MREs (meals ready to eat) that expired in 2002, U.S. and other Western officials said, and others have surrendered and sabotaged their own vehicles to avoid fighting. Old and outdated equipment has given way to new and sophisticated weapons Written By. And the results are the same. Russias equipment problem is just as difficult to solve. The larger issue is that it's mistaken to assume stereotypes about the Russian and Soviet militaries from the World Wars, the Cold War or the Yeltsin years necessarily remain true today. And they do the Kremlin's dirty work. Sign up for notifications from Insider! The way the Russians have advanced, which is that they have stuck to main roads so that they can move quickly, not risk of getting bogged down in mud. [35]Footage taken by a Ukrainian soldier in Chasiv Yar shows heavy incoming fire directed at the settlement, suggesting that Russian forces are continuing to strike areas along the T0504 Kostiantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway. There is a larger factor here: The Russian army is composed, by and large, of one-year conscripts, who are poorly trained (even within the confines of Russian military training), badly treated, and uninspired by ideology or any other motivating spirit. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after What we consider before using anonymous sources. WebAnswer (1 of 21): Yes. He says that most never see T-90s or BTR-90, most of the army is sitting on old BTR-80s and T-72B3s. Russia has closed down the airspace over the Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to reports. With a range of around 600 miles, the T-72 weighs 40 tons and gets less than one mile per gallon. [30]https://twitter.com/fdov21/status/1630339835058593794;https://t.me/y [31]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [32]https://www.facebook.com/watch/president.gov.ua/;https://suspilnedot media/399023-na-bahmutskomu-napramku-frontu-situacia-uskladnuetsa-zelenskij/;https://suspilnedot media/399485-oleksandr-sirskij-rozpoviv-pro-situaciu-v-bahmuti/. So they reported lies to him instead. Full speed into the obvious minefield. What are you thinking of? Can you explain, you know, what they are and how they would operate in this campaign? [37]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [38]https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://t.me/readovkanews/53706, [39]https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=133231762743931. By 2014 and 2015, wars in Ukraine and Syria revealed Russia's integration of drone surveillance, precision-strike capabilities, and deniable private military companies as tools to wage war with fewer casualties to regular Russian forces. Troops are trained in rote set pieces, with no time devoted to improvising if things dont go as planned. Putin's admission is a remarkable reversal from his comments in August, when he bragged to foreign allies at a military forum that Russia's weapons are "cutting edge" and "decades ahead" of their foreign counterparts. [80], Belarusian maneuver elements continue conducting exercises in Belarus.